The End of Affirmative Action: 2024 Admissions Data Analysis

The Class of 2028 represents a historic turning point in American higher education. These freshmen are the first cohort admitted after the Supreme Court’s June 2023 decision in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, which effectively banned race-conscious admissions practices. Universities released their demographic data throughout late August and September 2024, revealing a fractured picture where some institutions maintained diversity while others saw dramatic declines in Black and Hispanic enrollment.

The MIT Shockwave: A Sign of Things to Come

MIT was one of the first elite institutions to release its data for the Class of 2028, and the numbers confirmed the predictions made by affirmative action proponents. Because MIT does not use legacy admissions and relies heavily on standardized testing, its data offers a clear look at admissions based strictly on academic metrics without racial weighting.

The changes at MIT were stark and immediate:

• Black/African American enrollment plummeted from 15% in the Class of 2027 to just 5% in the Class of 2028.
• Hispanic/Latino enrollment dropped from 16% to 11%.
• Asian American enrollment surged, rising from 40% to 47%.
• White enrollment saw a slight increase from 38% to 37% (percentages may exceed 100% due to multi-racial identification).

Dean of Admissions Stu Schmill noted that the class is undoubtedly less diverse than its predecessors. This dataset set the tone for the season, suggesting that STEM-focused institutions relying heavily on quantitative metrics would see the largest demographic shifts.

The Ivy League Split: Harvard, Brown, and Yale

While MIT showed a drastic shift, the Ivy League results were far less uniform. This suggests that different universities applied “race-neutral” strategies, such as socioeconomic recruitment, with varying degrees of success.

Harvard and Brown See Declines

Harvard University, the primary target of the Supreme Court lawsuit, reported a decrease in Black student enrollment. The percentage of Black students in the freshman class fell from 18% the previous year to 14%. While significant, this was not the total collapse some analysts predicted. However, Hispanic enrollment actually increased slightly at Harvard, rising from 14% to 16%.

Brown University experienced sharper declines closer to the MIT model. At Brown, the share of Black students dropped from 15% to 9%, and Hispanic enrollment fell from 14% to 10%. Brown’s administration cited the aggressive enforcement of the court ruling as the primary driver for these reductions.

The Yale and Princeton Anomalies

In a surprising twist, Yale University and Princeton University reported numbers that remained largely stable. Yale’s Black student enrollment remained unchanged at exactly 14%. Princeton saw a minor dip in Black enrollment (from 9% to 8.9%) but generally maintained its diversity metrics.

Admissions experts speculate that Yale and Princeton may have leaned more heavily into geographic recruiting and socioeconomic diversity (recruiting low-income students via Pell Grant eligibility) to act as a proxy for racial diversity, a strategy that is still legal under the court’s ruling.

The "Amherst Drop" and Liberal Arts Colleges

Perhaps the most shocking data came from Amherst College, a small, elite liberal arts school in Massachusetts. Historically known for aggressive diversity initiatives, Amherst saw its Black student enrollment collapse from 11% in 2023 to just 3% in 2024.

This data point is critical because it highlights the vulnerability of small colleges. Unlike large universities with massive outreach budgets, smaller schools like Amherst and Tufts University (where Black enrollment fell from 7.3% to 4.7%) may struggle to use expensive recruitment tools to offset the loss of affirmative action.

Public Universities: UNC and Virginia

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), which was the defendant in the second half of the Supreme Court case, also reported losses.

• Black enrollment at UNC fell from 10.5% to 7.8%.
• Hispanic enrollment dipped slightly from 10.8% to 10.1%.

Similarly, the University of Virginia (UVA) saw Black enrollment drop from 6.8% to 4.8%. These public flagship universities face a unique challenge: they are often bound by state laws regarding in-state vs. out-of-state acceptance rates, limiting their flexibility to manipulate class composition compared to private peers like Yale.

Did Asian American Enrollment Skyrocket?

A central argument of the Students for Fair Admissions lawsuit was that Asian American applicants were being penalized to make room for other minority groups. The 2024 data offers a mixed answer to whether ending affirmative action would cause an Asian American surge.

At MIT, the theory held true: Asian American enrollment jumped by 7 percentage points. However, this was not the case everywhere.

• Harvard: Asian American enrollment remained flat at 37%.
• Yale: Asian American enrollment actually decreased from 30% to 24%.
• Duke: Asian American enrollment fell from 35% to 29%.

This indicates that the removal of race as a factor did not result in a uniform “swap” of Black students for Asian students. Instead, the void left by declining Black and Hispanic numbers was filled differently at each school—sometimes by White students, sometimes by Asian students, and sometimes by international applicants.

The Pivot to Socioeconomic Factors

With race off the table, admissions officers are pivoting to “adversity scores” and household income. The data shows a concerted effort to increase the number of students receiving Pell Grants (federal aid for low-income families).

For example, the University of Virginia introduced a new essay prompt inviting students to discuss how their background shaped their worldview, leveraging a loophole in the Supreme Court ruling that allows discussion of race in essays if it pertains to personal character. Consequently, UVA saw a slight uptick in Pell Grant recipients, even as racial diversity fell.

Moving forward, expect to see more universities dropping legacy admissions. Amherst, Virginia Tech, and Wesleyan have already ended preferences for children of alumni. The logic is simple: if schools cannot prefer minority applicants to ensure diversity, they can no longer ethically prefer wealthy, predominantly white alumni children either.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did all colleges see a drop in Black enrollment in 2024? No. While many elite schools like MIT, Amherst, and Brown saw significant drops, others like Yale and Caltech saw stability or even slight increases. The impact varied based on the school’s prior reliance on race-conscious admissions and their pivot to new strategies.

What is the “essay loophole”? Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion that universities could still consider an applicant’s discussion of how race affected their life, be it through discrimination or inspiration. Many colleges added new essay prompts in the 2023-2024 cycle to encourage students to talk about their personal backgrounds.

Did legacy admissions affect the 2024 data? Likely, yes. Schools that maintained legacy admissions (preference for alumni children) generally have a harder time maintaining diversity without affirmative action, as legacy pools are historically white and wealthy. Schools like Wesleyan that banned legacy admissions viewed it as a necessary step to counterbalance the end of affirmative action.

Why did MIT’s numbers change more than Harvard’s? MIT adheres strictly to quantifiable metrics (test scores and grades) and does not use legacy preferences or athletic recruitment to the same extent as the Ivy League. Without the ability to use race as a specific “plus factor,” their demographic numbers shifted immediately to reflect raw test score distributions.